Archive - Macro Is Dead

Low unemployment is a European mirage

The lowest unemployment rate ever means little for Europe’s struggle to stay out of recession

Nov 10 •

September 2024

Why equities love the death of the business cycle

Reaccelerating stimulus, easing and low economic volatility will buoy equities and will keep short-vol popular

Sep 13 •

July 2024

As a portfolio allocation, bonds really suck right now

Bonds need to be “defensive” to bother having in a broader portfolio. Right now, they have little chance of being that.

Jul 25 •

May 2024

The battle between the Yen and the Yuan

It might look like Toyota vs BYD - but it's really about open vs closed

May 29 •

March 2024

Steel will tell you when to care about China

A proper Chinese slow-down will propagate to US markets through a commodity stoked flight to the US dollar

Mar 20 •

February 2024

Why the short-end trends

Policy rates are made to trend by their human overseers – and this is great for returns

Feb 6 •

November 2023

The almost certain bull case for US growth

The private sector continues to de-leverage. Are fiscal deficits big enough to overcome that and drive 5%+ growth?

Nov 9, 2023 •

September 2023

Spiralling government debt isn’t a choice

There is little governments can do when the private sector decides to save, other than to spend itself.

Sep 29, 2023 •

August 2023

Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world

There are a few truly macro trends that, if they change, the world must change around them. The direction of cross-border capital flows is one of these.

Aug 17, 2023 •

July 2023

Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?

The market over-prices the chance of <1% rates, failing to take into account the changing psychology of the humans that run the Fed

Jul 5, 2023 •

May 2023

The (small) bank conundrum

The conundrum is not in what small banks should do, but what policy makers should do with small banks

May 21, 2023 •

March 2023

Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions

The roots of a classic financial crisis is in bad lending. What makes a bank-led crisis sufficient to send an economy into a coma?

Mar 15, 2023 •

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