Archive - Macro Is Dead

Steel will tell you when to care about China

A proper Chinese slow-down will propagate to US markets through a commodity stoked flight to the US dollar

Mar 20 •

February 2024

Why the short-end trends

Policy rates are made to trend by their human overseers – and this is great for returns

Feb 6 •

November 2023

The almost certain bull case for US growth

The private sector continues to de-leverage. Are fiscal deficits big enough to overcome that and drive 5%+ growth?

Nov 9, 2023 •

September 2023

Spiralling government debt isn’t a choice

There is little governments can do when the private sector decides to save, other than to spend itself.

Sep 29, 2023 •

August 2023

Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world

There are a few truly macro trends that, if they change, the world must change around them. The direction of cross-border capital flows is one of these.

Aug 17, 2023 •

July 2023

Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?

The market over-prices the chance of <1% rates, failing to take into account the changing psychology of the humans that run the Fed

Jul 5, 2023 •

May 2023

The (small) bank conundrum

The conundrum is not in what small banks should do, but what policy makers should do with small banks

May 21, 2023 •

March 2023

Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions

The roots of a classic financial crisis is in bad lending. What makes a bank-led crisis sufficient to send an economy into a coma?

Mar 15, 2023 •

January 2023

A guide to (inflationary) money printing

If QE isn’t money printing, then what is?

Jan 19, 2023 •

November 2022

The only thing QE did was destroy trust in the Fed

From its inception, Quantitative Easing has attracted an outsized amount of attention. Is this because it has a destabilising effect, or is it just…

Nov 9, 2022 •

October 2022

In the throes of policy error

Too fast, too hard and without caution – After throwing everything and the kitchen sink at deflation, Central Banks are trying to compensate with…

Oct 19, 2022 •

August 2022

The Fed can’t shrink its balance sheet!

The Fed’s traditional role has been as the “lender-of-last-resort”. Since the GFC, it has been moonlighting as the “borrower-of-first-resort”.

Aug 25, 2022 •

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