Macro Is Dead

When forecasting doom goes wrong

The apparent ease of the oil bull call teaches many valuable lessons about commodities markets and forecasting in general

Jun 26 • Peter Farac

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January 2026

Stop asking "when?". The US has already defaulted!

Large sovereigns can always choose not to hard default, but a soft default from inflation causes more capital loss than you think

Jan 16 • Peter Farac

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June 2025

Mutually Assured Economic Destruction

The Cold War, with Chinese characteristics

Jun 2, 2025 • Peter Farac

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March 2025

How does US growth slow with so much new debt?

Uncertainty won't overcome the deluge of new public and private debt

Mar 11, 2025 • Peter Farac

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January 2025

Tariffs that reshore must create inflation

Defining the "successful" tariff, featuring the tale of the washing machine and dryer combo

Jan 9, 2025 • Peter Farac

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November 2024

Low unemployment is a European mirage

The lowest unemployment rate ever means little for Europe’s struggle to stay out of recession

Nov 10, 2024 • Peter Farac

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September 2024

Why equities love the death of the business cycle

Reaccelerating stimulus, easing and low economic volatility will buoy equities and will keep short-vol popular

Sep 13, 2024 • Peter Farac

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July 2024

As a portfolio allocation, bonds really suck right now

Bonds need to be “defensive” to bother having in a broader portfolio. Right now, they have little chance of being that.

Jul 25, 2024 • Peter Farac

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May 2024

The battle between the Yen and the Yuan

It might look like Toyota vs BYD - but it's really about open vs closed

May 29, 2024 • Peter Farac

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March 2024

Steel will tell you when to care about China

A proper Chinese slow-down will propagate to US markets through a commodity stoked flight to the US dollar

Mar 20, 2024 • Peter Farac

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February 2024

Why the short-end trends

Policy rates are made to trend by their human overseers – and this is great for returns

Feb 6, 2024 • Peter Farac

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November 2023

The almost certain bull case for US growth

The private sector continues to de-leverage. Are fiscal deficits big enough to overcome that and drive 5%+ growth?

Nov 9, 2023 • Peter Farac

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