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How does US growth slow with so much new debt?
Uncertainty won't overcome the deluge of new public and private debt
Mar 11
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Peter Farac
35
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How does US growth slow with so much new debt?
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30
January 2025
Tariffs that reshore must create inflation
Defining the "successful" tariff, featuring the tale of the washing machine and dryer combo
Jan 9
•
Peter Farac
37
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Macro Is Dead
Tariffs that reshore must create inflation
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1
November 2024
Low unemployment is a European mirage
The lowest unemployment rate ever means little for Europe’s struggle to stay out of recession
Nov 10, 2024
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Peter Farac
39
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Macro Is Dead
Low unemployment is a European mirage
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11
September 2024
Why equities love the death of the business cycle
Reaccelerating stimulus, easing and low economic volatility will buoy equities and will keep short-vol popular
Sep 13, 2024
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Peter Farac
51
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Macro Is Dead
Why equities love the death of the business cycle
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11
July 2024
As a portfolio allocation, bonds really suck right now
Bonds need to be “defensive” to bother having in a broader portfolio. Right now, they have little chance of being that.
Jul 25, 2024
•
Peter Farac
55
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Macro Is Dead
As a portfolio allocation, bonds really suck right now
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7
May 2024
The battle between the Yen and the Yuan
It might look like Toyota vs BYD - but it's really about open vs closed
May 29, 2024
•
Peter Farac
25
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The battle between the Yen and the Yuan
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2
March 2024
Steel will tell you when to care about China
A proper Chinese slow-down will propagate to US markets through a commodity stoked flight to the US dollar
Mar 20, 2024
•
Peter Farac
43
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Macro Is Dead
Steel will tell you when to care about China
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20
February 2024
Why the short-end trends
Policy rates are made to trend by their human overseers – and this is great for returns
Feb 6, 2024
•
Peter Farac
28
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Macro Is Dead
Why the short-end trends
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9
November 2023
The almost certain bull case for US growth
The private sector continues to de-leverage. Are fiscal deficits big enough to overcome that and drive 5%+ growth?
Nov 9, 2023
•
Peter Farac
29
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Macro Is Dead
The almost certain bull case for US growth
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10
September 2023
Spiralling government debt isn’t a choice
There is little governments can do when the private sector decides to save, other than to spend itself.
Sep 29, 2023
•
Peter Farac
28
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Macro Is Dead
Spiralling government debt isn’t a choice
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18
August 2023
Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
There are a few truly macro trends that, if they change, the world must change around them. The direction of cross-border capital flows is one of these.
Aug 17, 2023
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Peter Farac
60
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Macro Is Dead
Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
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16
July 2023
Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?
The market over-prices the chance of <1% rates, failing to take into account the changing psychology of the humans that run the Fed
Jul 5, 2023
•
Peter Farac
14
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Macro Is Dead
Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?
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