Macro Is Dead

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Will the business cycle again?
Reaccelerating stimulus, easing and low economic volatility will buoy equities and will keep short-vol popular
 • 
Peter Farac
6

July 2024

As a portfolio allocation, bonds really suck right now
Bonds need to be “defensive” to bother having in a broader portfolio. Right now, they have little chance of being that.
 • 
Peter Farac
6

May 2024

The battle between the Yen and the Yuan
It might look like Toyota vs BYD - but it's really about open vs closed
 • 
Peter Farac
2

March 2024

Steel will tell you when to care about China
A proper Chinese slow-down will propagate to US markets through a commodity stoked flight to the US dollar
 • 
Peter Farac
19

February 2024

Why the short-end trends
Policy rates are made to trend by their human overseers – and this is great for returns
 • 
Peter Farac
9

November 2023

The almost certain bull case for US growth
The private sector continues to de-leverage. Are fiscal deficits big enough to overcome that and drive 5%+ growth?
 • 
Peter Farac
10

September 2023

Spiralling government debt isn’t a choice
There is little governments can do when the private sector decides to save, other than to spend itself.
 • 
Peter Farac
15

August 2023

July 2023

May 2023

The (small) bank conundrum
The conundrum is not in what small banks should do, but what policy makers should do with small banks
 • 
Peter Farac
3

March 2023

Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions
The roots of a classic financial crisis is in bad lending. What makes a bank-led crisis sufficient to send an economy into a coma?
 • 
Peter Farac
4

January 2023

A guide to (inflationary) money printing
If QE isn’t money printing, then what is?
 • 
Peter Farac
7
© 2024 Peter Farac
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