Macro Is Dead

Intervention just lets the BoJ delay and nothing more

Charts & Notes: Week 33, 2026

Aug 14 • Peter Farac

30

7

1

June 2026

When forecasting doom goes wrong

The apparent ease of the oil bull call teaches many valuable lessons about commodities markets and forecasting in general

Jun 26 • Peter Farac

41

8

4

January 2026

Stop asking "when?". The US has already defaulted!

Large sovereigns can always choose not to hard default, but a soft default from inflation causes more capital loss than you think

Jan 16 • Peter Farac

39

15

4

June 2025

Mutually Assured Economic Destruction

The Cold War, with Chinese characteristics

Jun 2, 2025 • Peter Farac

40

8

2

March 2025

How does US growth slow with so much new debt?

Uncertainty won't overcome the deluge of new public and private debt

Mar 11, 2025 • Peter Farac

48

34

5

January 2025

Tariffs that reshore must create inflation

Defining the "successful" tariff, featuring the tale of the washing machine and dryer combo

Jan 9, 2025 • Peter Farac

39

1

2

November 2024

Low unemployment is a European mirage

The lowest unemployment rate ever means little for Europe’s struggle to stay out of recession

Nov 10, 2024 • Peter Farac

39

11

1

September 2024

Why equities love the death of the business cycle

Reaccelerating stimulus, easing and low economic volatility will buoy equities and will keep short-vol popular

Sep 13, 2024 • Peter Farac

54

11

1

July 2024

As a portfolio allocation, bonds really suck right now

Bonds need to be “defensive” to bother having in a broader portfolio. Right now, they have little chance of being that.

Jul 25, 2024 • Peter Farac

56

5

3

May 2024

The battle between the Yen and the Yuan

It might look like Toyota vs BYD - but it's really about open vs closed

May 29, 2024 • Peter Farac

27

1

March 2024

Steel will tell you when to care about China

A proper Chinese slow-down will propagate to US markets through a commodity stoked flight to the US dollar

Mar 20, 2024 • Peter Farac

44

14

5

February 2024

Why the short-end trends

Policy rates are made to trend by their human overseers – and this is great for returns

Feb 6, 2024 • Peter Farac

28

9

1