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As a portfolio allocation, bonds really suck right now
Bonds need to be “defensive” to bother having in a broader portfolio. Right now, they have little chance of being that.
Jul 25
•
Peter Farac
23
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As a portfolio allocation, bonds really suck right now
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2
May 2024
The battle between the Yen and the Yuan
It might look like Toyota vs BYD - but it's really about open vs closed
May 29
•
Peter Farac
24
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The battle between the Yen and the Yuan
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March 2024
Steel will tell you when to care about China
A proper Chinese slow-down will propagate to US markets through a commodity stoked flight to the US dollar
Mar 20
•
Peter Farac
36
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Steel will tell you when to care about China
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February 2024
Why the short-end trends
Policy rates are made to trend by their human overseers – and this is great for returns
Feb 6
•
Peter Farac
27
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Why the short-end trends
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November 2023
The almost certain bull case for US growth
The private sector continues to de-leverage. Are fiscal deficits big enough to overcome that and drive 5%+ growth?
Nov 9, 2023
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Peter Farac
28
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The almost certain bull case for US growth
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September 2023
Spiralling government debt isn’t a choice
There is little governments can do when the private sector decides to save, other than to spend itself.
Sep 29, 2023
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Peter Farac
26
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Spiralling government debt isn’t a choice
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August 2023
Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
There are a few truly macro trends that, if they change, the world must change around them. The direction of cross-border capital flows is one of these.
Aug 17, 2023
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Peter Farac
56
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Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
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July 2023
Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?
The market over-prices the chance of <1% rates, failing to take into account the changing psychology of the humans that run the Fed
Jul 5, 2023
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Peter Farac
14
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Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?
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May 2023
The (small) bank conundrum
The conundrum is not in what small banks should do, but what policy makers should do with small banks
May 21, 2023
•
Peter Farac
16
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The (small) bank conundrum
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March 2023
Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions
The roots of a classic financial crisis is in bad lending. What makes a bank-led crisis sufficient to send an economy into a coma?
Mar 15, 2023
•
Peter Farac
21
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Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions
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January 2023
A guide to (inflationary) money printing
If QE isn’t money printing, then what is?
Jan 19, 2023
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Peter Farac
27
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A guide to (inflationary) money printing
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November 2022
The only thing QE did was destroy trust in the Fed
From its inception, Quantitative Easing has attracted an outsized amount of attention. Is this because it has a destabilising effect, or is it just…
Nov 9, 2022
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Peter Farac
24
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The only thing QE did was destroy trust in the Fed
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