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Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions
The roots of a classic financial crisis is in bad lending. What makes a bank-led crisis sufficient to send an economy into a coma?
Peter Farac
Mar 15
12
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Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions
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January 2023
A guide to (inflationary) money printing
If QE isn’t money printing, then what is?
Peter Farac
Jan 19
18
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A guide to (inflationary) money printing
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November 2022
The only thing QE did was destroy trust in the Fed
From its inception, Quantitative Easing has attracted an outsized amount of attention. Is this because it has a destabilising effect, or is it just…
Peter Farac
Nov 9, 2022
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The only thing QE did was destroy trust in the Fed
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October 2022
In the throes of policy error
Too fast, too hard and without caution – After throwing everything and the kitchen sink at deflation, Central Banks are trying to compensate with…
Peter Farac
Oct 19, 2022
7
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In the throes of policy error
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August 2022
The Fed can’t shrink its balance sheet!
The Fed’s traditional role has been as the “lender-of-last-resort”. Since the GFC, it has been moonlighting as the “borrower-of-first-resort”.
Peter Farac
Aug 25, 2022
26
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The Fed can’t shrink its balance sheet!
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July 2022
Is the 60/40 portfolio dead?
A retreat of inflation is not sufficient to bring back negative correlation between equities and bonds, if history is any guide.
Peter Farac
Jul 3, 2022
8
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Is the 60/40 portfolio dead?
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June 2022
Low interest rates don’t drive up asset prices – governments do
Despite the appeal of the hypothesis that lower interest rates encourages the private sector to take on debt, the data doesn’t support it. So why are…
Peter Farac
Jun 2, 2022
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Low interest rates don’t drive up asset prices – governments do
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March 2022
A new commodity bull market must come with a weak US Dollar
Commodity cycles are the main determinant for long-term US Dollar trends, relegating the influence of the Fed to short-term wobbles only
Peter Farac
Mar 29, 2022
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A new commodity bull market must come with a weak US Dollar
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February 2022
On the brink of fatal policy error
Tempting deflation by aggressively tightening policy before we know if inflation is embedded is irresponsible. The cost of deflation is greater than…
Peter Farac
Feb 27, 2022
8
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On the brink of fatal policy error
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How long until they say “don’t fight the PBOC”?
The PBOC will have indirect control over Fed policy as it refuses to follow global policy tightening
Peter Farac
Feb 7, 2022
7
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How long until they say “don’t fight the PBOC”?
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January 2022
Tapering IS Quantitative Tightening
Don't believe the Fed's redefinition of monetary tightening. It's designed to deceive and mislead
Peter Farac
Jan 17, 2022
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Tapering IS Quantitative Tightening
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December 2021
Are we even capitalist?
We've drifted as a society, and anger for this on both sides of the aisle is misunderstood
Peter Farac
Dec 27, 2021
1
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Are we even capitalist?
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