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Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
There are a few truly macro trends that, if they change, the world must change around them. The direction of cross-border capital flows is one of these.
Aug 17
•
Peter Farac
41
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Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
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13
July 2023
Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?
The market over-prices the chance of <1% rates, failing to take into account the changing psychology of the humans that run the Fed
Jul 5
•
Peter Farac
11
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Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?
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May 2023
The (small) bank conundrum
The conundrum is not in what small banks should do, but what policy makers should do with small banks
May 21
•
Peter Farac
15
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The (small) bank conundrum
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March 2023
Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions
The roots of a classic financial crisis is in bad lending. What makes a bank-led crisis sufficient to send an economy into a coma?
Mar 15
•
Peter Farac
19
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Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions
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January 2023
A guide to (inflationary) money printing
If QE isn’t money printing, then what is?
Jan 19
•
Peter Farac
20
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A guide to (inflationary) money printing
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November 2022
The only thing QE did was destroy trust in the Fed
From its inception, Quantitative Easing has attracted an outsized amount of attention. Is this because it has a destabilising effect, or is it just…
Nov 9, 2022
•
Peter Farac
15
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The only thing QE did was destroy trust in the Fed
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October 2022
In the throes of policy error
Too fast, too hard and without caution – After throwing everything and the kitchen sink at deflation, Central Banks are trying to compensate with…
Oct 19, 2022
•
Peter Farac
7
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In the throes of policy error
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August 2022
The Fed can’t shrink its balance sheet!
The Fed’s traditional role has been as the “lender-of-last-resort”. Since the GFC, it has been moonlighting as the “borrower-of-first-resort”.
Aug 25, 2022
•
Peter Farac
27
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The Fed can’t shrink its balance sheet!
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July 2022
Is the 60/40 portfolio dead?
A retreat of inflation is not sufficient to bring back negative correlation between equities and bonds, if history is any guide.
Jul 3, 2022
•
Peter Farac
10
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Is the 60/40 portfolio dead?
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June 2022
Low interest rates don’t drive up asset prices – governments do
Despite the appeal of the hypothesis that lower interest rates encourages the private sector to take on debt, the data doesn’t support it. So why are…
Jun 2, 2022
•
Peter Farac
14
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Low interest rates don’t drive up asset prices – governments do
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March 2022
A new commodity bull market must come with a weak US Dollar
Commodity cycles are the main determinant for long-term US Dollar trends, relegating the influence of the Fed to short-term wobbles only
Mar 29, 2022
•
Peter Farac
14
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A new commodity bull market must come with a weak US Dollar
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February 2022
On the brink of fatal policy error
Tempting deflation by aggressively tightening policy before we know if inflation is embedded is irresponsible. The cost of deflation is greater than…
Feb 27, 2022
•
Peter Farac
10
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On the brink of fatal policy error
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