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When forecasting doom goes wrong
The apparent ease of the oil bull call teaches many valuable lessons about commodities markets and forecasting in general
Jun 26
•
Peter Farac
41
8
4
Stop asking "when?". The US has already defaulted!
Large sovereigns can always choose not to hard default, but a soft default from inflation causes more capital loss than you think
Jan 16
•
Peter Farac
39
15
4
Mutually Assured Economic Destruction
The Cold War, with Chinese characteristics
Jun 2, 2025
•
Peter Farac
40
8
2
Most Popular
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Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
Aug 17, 2023
•
Peter Farac
69
19
8
As a portfolio allocation, bonds really suck right now
Jul 25, 2024
•
Peter Farac
56
7
3
The almost certain bull case for US growth
Nov 9, 2023
•
Peter Farac
29
10
2
Why equities love the death of the business cycle
Sep 13, 2024
•
Peter Farac
54
11
1
How does US growth slow with so much new debt?
Mar 11, 2025
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Peter Farac
48
34
5
Steel will tell you when to care about China
Mar 20, 2024
•
Peter Farac
44
14
5
Charts & Notes
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Real yields should be higher
Charts & Notes: Week 31, 2026
Jul 30
•
Peter Farac
39
20
3
Fearful and rudderless
Charts & Notes: Week 29, 2026
Jul 17
•
Peter Farac
19
Contradictory "data-dependent forward guidance" is out. Great!
Charts & Notes: Week 24, 2026
Jun 18
•
Peter Farac
26
1
Recent posts
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How does US growth slow with so much new debt?
Uncertainty won't overcome the deluge of new public and private debt
Mar 11, 2025
•
Peter Farac
48
34
5
Tariffs that reshore must create inflation
Defining the "successful" tariff, featuring the tale of the washing machine and dryer combo
Jan 9, 2025
•
Peter Farac
39
1
2
Low unemployment is a European mirage
The lowest unemployment rate ever means little for Europe’s struggle to stay out of recession
Nov 10, 2024
•
Peter Farac
39
11
1
Macro Is Dead
A detailed obituary to macro trading. A deep-dive into when, why and how it died.
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