4 Comments
User's avatar
Inokentiy Korniyenko's avatar

Thanks. Great piece. There is an endless holy war about the effects of the QE/QT among all kind of pundits and talking heads. The questions. If “While the bond buying effect through QE might be muted to non-existent, there is one aspect that is real, and that is the removal of interest rate risk from private markets by the QE mechanism” why can’t we think that the removal of rate risk will be same not existed i.e. there is much more risk to absorb in private markets then the capacity of QE to absorb it? Or it all goes through behavioral perception on that removal? So is it correct to state that QE really allows the Fed to ease monetary policy and to avoid using NIRP but it works it’s way through market participants’ perception and like homeopathy?

Expand full comment
Peter Farac's avatar

Indeed, the amount removed by QE was only a small proportion of the increase in interest rate risk through deficit expansion.

Ha like homeopathy, I like that. This could well be the explanation for it, because the "boost" is usually for a short period of time only, and we fall right back into the lower trajectory of growth persistent since the GFC.

Expand full comment
Lisa Beilfuss's avatar

Hello! I'm an independent journalist (formerly at Barron's) wondering if you would be interested in connecting. I follow your work on Twitter and am particularly interested in your Jan. 10 thread about recession/a change in the pace of deterioration. My email address is lisabeilfuss@gmail.com

Thank you and best regards,

Lisa

Expand full comment
Man1's avatar

I had to read this twice. Thank you to the Count for the time required on this thoughtful piece. One thing I might add is to look at Cyclically adjusted PE ratios, not 1 yr forward (I think this article used the latter) and perhaps at estimates of US aggregate profit margins over time (i.e. have margins risen due to QE or due to efficiencies from technology). What we all are thinking about now is what happens next: Will the Fed take actions that cause LT rates to fall, will the affect be the same as last time? It feels a bit different now, perhaps.

Expand full comment