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Rich C's avatar

Love the way you break things down for non-maths/economics students - Thanks!

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El's avatar

I like your new weekly posts a lot, thank you!

I think found an error: "Core goods inflation, which supressed inflation in the 2010s ..."

After a sell-off and economic slowdown in the US, a ROW crises would follow - with a rising USD as save haven, US equities should then also find their bottom along with ROW equities i guess? After a (partial) redistrubtion of trade deficits, it will be interesting if global equity markets will rise more equally or the US will outperforme again, even if to a lesser extend?

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Peter Farac's avatar

Thanks, I fixed that to "deflation". So much content in this one and I have to get it out by publication time!

Things get really bad when an EM crisis takes hold which will show as a reversal of the weak dollar. The US situation is one about growth, but for large scale surplus countries it is more directly about debt servicing in foreign currencies.

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El's avatar

Why do large scale surplus countries need to service debt though, as they are in surplus?

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Peter Farac's avatar

Because their surplus isn't in their own currency. If they try to convert it then their currency will appreciate which puts their surplus at risk

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Todd's avatar

Asset Reflux :)

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