I think found an error: "Core goods inflation, which supressed inflation in the 2010s ..."
After a sell-off and economic slowdown in the US, a ROW crises would follow - with a rising USD as save haven, US equities should then also find their bottom along with ROW equities i guess? After a (partial) redistrubtion of trade deficits, it will be interesting if global equity markets will rise more equally or the US will outperforme again, even if to a lesser extend?
Thanks, I fixed that to "deflation". So much content in this one and I have to get it out by publication time!
Things get really bad when an EM crisis takes hold which will show as a reversal of the weak dollar. The US situation is one about growth, but for large scale surplus countries it is more directly about debt servicing in foreign currencies.
Love the way you break things down for non-maths/economics students - Thanks!
I like your new weekly posts a lot, thank you!
I think found an error: "Core goods inflation, which supressed inflation in the 2010s ..."
After a sell-off and economic slowdown in the US, a ROW crises would follow - with a rising USD as save haven, US equities should then also find their bottom along with ROW equities i guess? After a (partial) redistrubtion of trade deficits, it will be interesting if global equity markets will rise more equally or the US will outperforme again, even if to a lesser extend?
Thanks, I fixed that to "deflation". So much content in this one and I have to get it out by publication time!
Things get really bad when an EM crisis takes hold which will show as a reversal of the weak dollar. The US situation is one about growth, but for large scale surplus countries it is more directly about debt servicing in foreign currencies.
Why do large scale surplus countries need to service debt though, as they are in surplus?
Because their surplus isn't in their own currency. If they try to convert it then their currency will appreciate which puts their surplus at risk
Asset Reflux :)