The roots of a classic financial crisis is in bad lending. What makes a bank-led crisis sufficient to send an economy into a coma?
Great article! Thank you. If the excess this time is in the public debt market, as I believe you stated, then the private credit markets could be in danger. In other words how much will interest rates (10yearTreasury) have to rise to balance a large incoming deficit with a declining demand from big buyers(Japan,China Fed) which would contract private sector credit demand? Do you feel this will be the trigger that contracts credit throughout the system? It seems like it’s the public debt markets that are the threat? Your very helpful thoughts? Thank you:)
Great article. A little unclear as to why secured lending is more troublesome than unsecured.. very counterintuitive.