Commodity cycles are the main determinant for long-term US Dollar trends, relegating the influence of the Fed to short-term wobbles only
How does the new commodity bull market and weaker dollar fit into inflation/deflation discussion?
You argue the danger is deflation not inflation. And if not for the war I would agree in 100% - the US economy is structured so that any surplus from government spending eventually will go to the stockholders and higher earners, they tend to invest not spend.
But the war changes a lot. De-globalisation. Instead of just-in-time we will have just-in-time, new supply chains to be crated. US will reindustrialise, can’t afford to have everything manufactured in the rival state, China.
More military spending in general in the world. Net-zero. This requires a lot of spending, a lot of deficit spending by governments.