How does the new commodity bull market and weaker dollar fit into inflation/deflation discussion?
You argue the danger is deflation not inflation. And if not for the war I would agree in 100% - the US economy is structured so that any surplus from government spending eventually will go to the stockholders and higher earners, they tend to invest not spend.
But the war changes a lot. De-globalisation. Instead of just-in-time we will have just-in-time, new supply chains to be crated. US will reindustrialise, can’t afford to have everything manufactured in the rival state, China.
More military spending in general in the world. Net-zero. This requires a lot of spending, a lot of deficit spending by governments.
Apologies for the late reply - I've been on holiday.
I can't argue with any of the trends you have brought up. Where the misunderstanding might be is how any type of price rises manifest themselves into inflation.
If demand is strong AND there are supply issues, there will be inflation. We've seen this in the post-COVID period. Demand was strong because of stimulus, and it has driven inflation.
Where the catch is however is the nature of the demand. If it has been created organically, and is genuine activity OUTSIDE OF debt funded demand, then inflation can persist.
If it is funded by debt however, the weight of that debt on productivity has a more negative effect on demand in the future. If you fund more demand with debt, it is ultimately deflationary as the temporary spike in demand (for commodities, let's say) will always taper without continued stimulus and debt servicing will divert resources away from further demand.
The commodity boom I present in this article is theoretical. It would need to be driven by demand over a continued period. Supply issues only help to have a step change to prices - not lift prices continuously.
If we do get a continued rise in prices however, the article intended to teach about the linkages to the USD on a long-term basis.
How does the new commodity bull market and weaker dollar fit into inflation/deflation discussion?
You argue the danger is deflation not inflation. And if not for the war I would agree in 100% - the US economy is structured so that any surplus from government spending eventually will go to the stockholders and higher earners, they tend to invest not spend.
But the war changes a lot. De-globalisation. Instead of just-in-time we will have just-in-time, new supply chains to be crated. US will reindustrialise, can’t afford to have everything manufactured in the rival state, China.
More military spending in general in the world. Net-zero. This requires a lot of spending, a lot of deficit spending by governments.
Apologies for the late reply - I've been on holiday.
I can't argue with any of the trends you have brought up. Where the misunderstanding might be is how any type of price rises manifest themselves into inflation.
If demand is strong AND there are supply issues, there will be inflation. We've seen this in the post-COVID period. Demand was strong because of stimulus, and it has driven inflation.
Where the catch is however is the nature of the demand. If it has been created organically, and is genuine activity OUTSIDE OF debt funded demand, then inflation can persist.
If it is funded by debt however, the weight of that debt on productivity has a more negative effect on demand in the future. If you fund more demand with debt, it is ultimately deflationary as the temporary spike in demand (for commodities, let's say) will always taper without continued stimulus and debt servicing will divert resources away from further demand.
The commodity boom I present in this article is theoretical. It would need to be driven by demand over a continued period. Supply issues only help to have a step change to prices - not lift prices continuously.
If we do get a continued rise in prices however, the article intended to teach about the linkages to the USD on a long-term basis.
Hope this helps