What's you view on seasonality being caused by quaterly window dressing in REPO and other interbank transactions?
That would explain that pretty much every crisis happed either around March or around September.
LTCM, Dot Com, Bear Sterns, Lehman, COVID, SVB, 2022 crypto crash and UK debacle. Literally all of them. When was the las time crisis happened in June or December?
You observation is correct, there aren't financial crisis at half-year end for some reason, although there were some notable transactions in December 2008 which guided how the rest of the GFC played out.
Totally guessing here but I think it is related to periods when the bulk of financial services is at work which is more likely to be the case in September and March then June and December.
Decisions are made and consequences are felt. If it was repo, then why wouldn't it effect June and December as well? Balance sheet window dressing has only become more prevalent, but at the same time I don't think a lot of these events were necessarily caused by a hiccup in funding, they were building up for a long time.
Honestly I don't have an answer for why not June and December. I think I heard or read somewhere (probably from Jeff Snider somewhere around 2020, when he was good) that there are some different mechanics at play and June and December tend to be much quiter window dressing periods than March and September. But I don't remember why this was the case, maybe something about holidays
What's you view on seasonality being caused by quaterly window dressing in REPO and other interbank transactions?
That would explain that pretty much every crisis happed either around March or around September.
LTCM, Dot Com, Bear Sterns, Lehman, COVID, SVB, 2022 crypto crash and UK debacle. Literally all of them. When was the las time crisis happened in June or December?
You observation is correct, there aren't financial crisis at half-year end for some reason, although there were some notable transactions in December 2008 which guided how the rest of the GFC played out.
Totally guessing here but I think it is related to periods when the bulk of financial services is at work which is more likely to be the case in September and March then June and December.
Decisions are made and consequences are felt. If it was repo, then why wouldn't it effect June and December as well? Balance sheet window dressing has only become more prevalent, but at the same time I don't think a lot of these events were necessarily caused by a hiccup in funding, they were building up for a long time.
Honestly I don't have an answer for why not June and December. I think I heard or read somewhere (probably from Jeff Snider somewhere around 2020, when he was good) that there are some different mechanics at play and June and December tend to be much quiter window dressing periods than March and September. But I don't remember why this was the case, maybe something about holidays
And of course the pressure is building throughout the period, it just comes to surface during quater ends when dealers reduce repo activity