Incredibly thoughtful framing of the post-GFC political realities we find ourselves in and what they mean for ultimately forecasting market price action
Very good, balanced piece (I probably liked it so much because it agrees with my own thinking about the situation).
Quite interesting that speculative capital was scared off upside risk by Trump's posts but are somehow completely unconcerned with putting on downside risk despite the fact that so far flow of oil out of SoH is former "offshore storage".
Thinking about the price action in oil and products recently I keep going back to the idea that Trump admin may be doing more than jawbowning price down (as in getting involved in futures, whether directly or indirectly, Bessent surely has the knowhow and network to do it). Trump has put so much credibility (regardless of whether one thinks he has any or not) into the idea of oil and gasoline "dropping like a rock to lower than ever" once the war is over it would be almost strange if he did not do something about it (apart from tweeting, although perhaps he thinks his posts are omnipotent).
Products are definitely a concern and the more recent drawdown in the market is going to be a tough one to counter with some tweets.
I don't think the product situation is easily fixed and is a worry. Crack spreads continue to trade higher and the problem clearly isn't fully digested but I can't see anyone taking on that trade in crude.
Lots of talk about price gouging by refiners that will surely keep them worried though...
Incredibly thoughtful framing of the post-GFC political realities we find ourselves in and what they mean for ultimately forecasting market price action
Great summation of forecasts and rumination on mistakes made. Appreciate you doing this
Glad you enjoyed it!
Very good, balanced piece (I probably liked it so much because it agrees with my own thinking about the situation).
Quite interesting that speculative capital was scared off upside risk by Trump's posts but are somehow completely unconcerned with putting on downside risk despite the fact that so far flow of oil out of SoH is former "offshore storage".
Thinking about the price action in oil and products recently I keep going back to the idea that Trump admin may be doing more than jawbowning price down (as in getting involved in futures, whether directly or indirectly, Bessent surely has the knowhow and network to do it). Trump has put so much credibility (regardless of whether one thinks he has any or not) into the idea of oil and gasoline "dropping like a rock to lower than ever" once the war is over it would be almost strange if he did not do something about it (apart from tweeting, although perhaps he thinks his posts are omnipotent).
Thanks for the comment!
Products are definitely a concern and the more recent drawdown in the market is going to be a tough one to counter with some tweets.
I don't think the product situation is easily fixed and is a worry. Crack spreads continue to trade higher and the problem clearly isn't fully digested but I can't see anyone taking on that trade in crude.
Lots of talk about price gouging by refiners that will surely keep them worried though...
Thanks for this great clarifying overview over the last months!
It reminded me of your article about how the communcation and markets reaction did more than the actual mechanics of QE in the 2010s.
Fantastic piece!
This is an exceptional read. Thank you.