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Steel will tell you when to care about China
A proper Chinese slow-down will propagate to US markets through a commodity stoked flight to the US dollar
Mar 20
•
Peter Farac
30
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Steel will tell you when to care about China
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19
February 2024
Why the short-end trends
Policy rates are made to trend by their human overseers – and this is great for returns
Feb 6
•
Peter Farac
24
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Why the short-end trends
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9
November 2023
The almost certain bull case for US growth
The private sector continues to de-leverage. Are fiscal deficits big enough to overcome that and drive 5%+ growth?
Nov 9, 2023
•
Peter Farac
24
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The almost certain bull case for US growth
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September 2023
Spiralling government debt isn’t a choice
There is little governments can do when the private sector decides to save, other than to spend itself.
Sep 29, 2023
•
Peter Farac
22
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Spiralling government debt isn’t a choice
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August 2023
Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
There are a few truly macro trends that, if they change, the world must change around them. The direction of cross-border capital flows is one of these.
Aug 17, 2023
•
Peter Farac
46
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Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
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July 2023
Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?
The market over-prices the chance of <1% rates, failing to take into account the changing psychology of the humans that run the Fed
Jul 5, 2023
•
Peter Farac
11
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Are the days of ZIRP over for the Fed?
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May 2023
The (small) bank conundrum
The conundrum is not in what small banks should do, but what policy makers should do with small banks
May 21, 2023
•
Peter Farac
15
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The (small) bank conundrum
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March 2023
Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions
The roots of a classic financial crisis is in bad lending. What makes a bank-led crisis sufficient to send an economy into a coma?
Mar 15, 2023
•
Peter Farac
19
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Bad lending, financial crises and deep recessions
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January 2023
A guide to (inflationary) money printing
If QE isn’t money printing, then what is?
Jan 19, 2023
•
Peter Farac
22
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A guide to (inflationary) money printing
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November 2022
The only thing QE did was destroy trust in the Fed
From its inception, Quantitative Easing has attracted an outsized amount of attention. Is this because it has a destabilising effect, or is it just…
Nov 9, 2022
•
Peter Farac
16
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The only thing QE did was destroy trust in the Fed
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3
October 2022
In the throes of policy error
Too fast, too hard and without caution – After throwing everything and the kitchen sink at deflation, Central Banks are trying to compensate with…
Oct 19, 2022
•
Peter Farac
8
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In the throes of policy error
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August 2022
The Fed can’t shrink its balance sheet!
The Fed’s traditional role has been as the “lender-of-last-resort”. Since the GFC, it has been moonlighting as the “borrower-of-first-resort”.
Aug 25, 2022
•
Peter Farac
29
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The Fed can’t shrink its balance sheet!
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